Another more recent innovation is our ability to process and extract shale oil, more specifically a material called kerogen (a waxy mixture of hydrocarbon compounds). This tends to be found within shale deposits and needs to be heated to around 932 degrees Fahrenheit (500 degrees centigrade) to extract and process. This process converts the solid kerogen into something similar to oil. What’s more, there is an absolute glut of this stuff in places like the USA. However, if the global push for decarbonization is accelerated, or indeed successful, this estimate will prove to be a gross underestimate of remaining reserves. Another problem with estimations of remaining oil reserves is the fact they are necessarily blind to what we don’t know.

US billion-dollar hypersonic deal to counter China, Russia at 5 times the speed of sound

This is because the carbon budget used only gives a 50% chance of 1.5C and because the scientists assumed a significant level of CO2 removal from the atmosphere how much oil is left in the world using technology that is yet to be proven at scale. Because proven reserves include oil recoverable under current economic conditions, nations may see large increases in proven reserves when known, but previously uneconomic deposits become economic to develop. In this way, Canada’s proven reserves increased suddenly in 2003 when the oil sands of Alberta were seen to be economically viable. Similarly, Venezuela’s proven reserves jumped in the late 2000s when the heavy oil of the Orinoco Belt was judged economic.

Regional distribution of oil reserves

It all depends on how much consumers are willing to pay for that oil. Japan, for instance, is planning to one day extract methane from undersea hydrate deposits — these types of deposits may contain more than twice the amount of carbon as all of Earth’s fossil fuels. It was the Russian company Gazprom that brought home the first barrels of oil from the Arctic in 2014, and more have followed since. Now, some 20% of Russia’s GDP and 30% of its exports come from these chilly lands. Global oil supply can’t meet the current rate of global oil demand forever, necessitating new energy sources and usage practices. Even if technology allowed us to harvest every last drop of oil in the planet (thereby increasing scarcity), rising prices and climate impacts would necessitate widespread change long before we actually ran out of oil.

Why We Haven’t Reached Peak Oil

It can also be used “as is” as a binder for many other things like asphalt, roofing products, damp-proofing, etc. So, for all intents and purposes, gold is effectively in infinite supply, albeit rare. The more optimistic at heart, however, realize that there is a big universe out there full of all the potential sources of stuff we could ever need. If we ever did run out of something like copper on Earth, we could, with enough effort, “pop-out” to space and get some from another planet or asteroid. As the world moves away from oil as an energy source, thanks to the shift to electric vehicles, according to BP’s 2023 Energy Outlook Report, demand will likely plateau. In October 2023, for instance, the International Energy Agency said it expects oil use to have peaked by 2030, declining after that.

1. “Oil is a girl’s best friend,” certainly has an interesting ring to it.
2. So long as it is still valued as a thing, and considering the fact it is now incredibly rare, it would probably be exorbitantly expensive to buy.
3. This is because the carbon budget used only gives a 50% chance of 1.5C and because the scientists assumed a significant level of CO2 removal from the atmosphere using technology that is yet to be proven at scale.
4. As the world moves away from oil as an energy source, thanks to the shift to electric vehicles, according to BP’s 2023 Energy Outlook Report, demand will likely plateau.
5. With regards to oil (and its derivatives), there are viable alternative fuels around that work just as well, if not better.
6. Stay up-to-date on engineering, tech, space, and science news with The Blueprint.

More interestingly though, humans have even found ways to create artificial versions, or alternatives, of “living” natural resources. We’ll let you decide if such things are technically the same as the original or not. While this does, obviously, increase the relative consumption of the metal, humans have found ways to use it more sparingly over time, or use alternatives instead. We have even found new sources for this precious metal once thought impossible — “fool’s gold“.

1. As we find the easiest reserves to extract, options for new discoveries dwindle.
2. This is where the 53-year estimate comes from and where that 32-year estimate originated in 1981.
3. Theoretically, we could recover it all in the future if we wanted to.
4. Other researchers, organizations, and governments have different deadlines for fossil fuel exhaustion, depending on the data and assumptions that they make, as well as political affiliation and interests.
5. Developing ocean basins create the right conditions for the rapid burial of plant and animal matter, while the movement of Earth’s crust creates the heat and pressure that cooks that matter into oil.
6. Basically, the impact of oil shortages can be lessened by decreasing our reliance on fossil fuels.

But, as finite resources, this paradigm can’t obviously last forever. If successful, this sort of initiative would kill two birds with one stone, dealing with waste and reducing society’s dependence on crude oil. And this couldn’t come at a better time, with something like 88 percent of all plastic used worldwide being either dumped, burned, or leaked into the environment.

Technically recoverable oil is also liable to greatly fluctuate in quantity. Sulfur is a big deal as it is very corrosive to steel, which is obviously not good news for equipment like that used in refineries. Sulfur-rich oil is very complex and energy-intensive to process which obviously increases the cost of bringing it to market. For reference, a barrel of crude oil is about 42 gallons or about 159 liters. So long as we have access to some viable DNA of a creature in question, we could possibly, using bioengineering, recreate them too. Scientists, for example, are currently attempting to “de-extinct” some animals, like the Woolly Mammoth.

This is obviously dependent, as we previously stated, on the oil extraction methods and technology. While that sounds like quite a lot, estimates of 47 years are based on oil consumption being maintained at around 35 and half billion barrels a year, or 97 million barrels of oil a day. Based on the 2016 world population, that works out at around 5 barrels per person per year, or 0.5 gallons per person, per day. Crude oil is one of the most important resources we have ever discovered. Oil and the many products made from it have literally and figuratively transformed the world beyond all recognition. However, as we are constantly reminded, crude oil is not in infinite supply.

On the subject of chucking stuff into space, some new innovations, like kinetic launchers, are currently being developed. If successful, this could “ease” the pressure on raw materials needed to make rockets. Knowing oil and gas won’t ever run out in your lifetime shouldn’t be an excuse to keep using them. Rather, knowing this, we should all take action to ensure that our children and grandchildren actually have a future.

In 2011, Venezuela overtook Saudi Arabia as the country with the highest share of proven oil reserves in the world. So if, and likely when, oil begins to become even more restrictively costly in the future, consumers will increasingly shop around for alternatives. If this doesn’t happen, which is unlikely, then innovations will soon appear to use fossil fuels ever more efficiently. “Proven” oil reserves are those oil reserves that any given region can theoretically extract based on the infrastructure they have in place or plan to have in the near future.

History of World’s Proven Oil Reserves

Denmark and Costa Rica recently founded an alliance of countries setting an end date for fossil fuels. Fossil fuels have formed over an extensive period of time from the remains of plants and animals that lived millions of years ago. Another important term to get to grips with is “technically recoverable resources“, or TRR for short. This is used to refer to those oil reserves that can be extracted using current methods and technology but may not be profitable to do so.

Nuclear power plants, renewable energy sources, and biofuels already exist and can readily be used to provide heating and power for many nations worldwide. Oil has various uses once extracted, but the vast majority is distilled to make liquid fuels like gasoline or is used to make plastic or chemicals. So long as societies around the world maintain their demand for fuel, plastic, and other stuff made, in part, from crude oil, an estimate of 47 years is probably quite conservative. With regards to other fossil fuels, we have an estimated 53 years of natural gas, and 114 years of coal left to rip out of the ground. The conclusions of the report are “bleak” for the fossil fuel industry, implying that oil, gas and coal production must have already peaked and will decline at 3% a year from now.